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Autor | Steve Ressler |
Titel | Social Network Analysis as an Approach to Combat Terrorism: Past, Present, and Future Research |
Zeitschrift | Homeland Security Affairs |
Herausgeber | Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security |
Datum | July 2006 |
Nummer | 2 (2) |
URL | http://www.hsaj.org/?fullarticle=2.2.8 |
Literaturverz. |
yes |
Fußnoten | yes |
Fragmente | 12 |
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1.5.1 Issues in Data Collection[FN 7]
Data collection is difficult for any network analysis because it is hard to create a complete network. It is especially difficult to gain information on terrorist networks. Terrorist organizations do not provide information on their members, and the government rarely allows researchers to use their data. A number of academic researchers focus primarily on data collection on terrorist organizations, analyzing the information through description and straightforward modeling. Valdis Krebs was one of the first to collect data using public sources with his 2001 article in Connections. In this work, Krebs creates a pictorial representation of the al Qaeda network (as shown in Figure 1.4) responsible for 9/11 that shows the many connections between the hijackers of the four airplanes. Similarly, After the Madrid bombing in 2004, Spanish sociologist Jose A. Rodriguez conducted an analysis to map the March 11th terrorist network. [FN 7] The text in this subsection is partially published in Memon Nasrullah and Larsen Henrik Legind. (2007e) |
Data Collectors
Data collection is difficult for any network analysis because it is hard to create a complete network. It is especially difficult to gain information on terrorist networks. Terrorist organizations do not provide information on their members, and the government rarely allows researchers to use their intelligence data. A number of academic researchers focus primarily on data collection on terrorist organizations, analyzing the information through description and straightforward modeling. Valdis Krebs was one of the first to collect data using public sources with his 2001 article in Connections. In this work, Krebs creates a pictorial representation of the al Qaeda network responsible for 9/11 that shows the many ties between the hijackers of the four airplanes. After the Madrid bombing in 2004, Spanish sociologist Jose A. Rodriguez completed an analysis similar to Krebs’ by using public sources to map the March 11th terrorist network. |
The conference, the proceedings of which "this subsection is partially published" in, was held on 4-6 July 2007. Thus the unnamed source predates (again) the text by Nm. It should also be noticed that the coauthors of the conference paper by Nm are his thesis advisor and the chair of his thesis committee. Note: in the bibliography there are two entries (2007e): "Memon Nasrullah and Larsen Henrik Legind. (2007e)" as well as "Memon Nasrullah, Hicks David L., and Larsen Henrik Legind (2007e)". Only the latter has common text fragments with the chapter 1.5.1 of the dissertation and therefore it was assumed that in FN 7 this publication was meant. |
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Understanding Terror Networks by Marc Sageman was another brilliant attempt in this regard. He using public sources, collected biographies of 172 Islamic terrorist operatives affiliated with the global Salafi jihad (the violent revivalist Islamic movement led by al Qaeda). He also used social network analysis specifically on Al Qaeda operatives since 1998.
However collecting terrorists’ information from open sources has a few key drawbacks. With open sources, if the author does not have information on terrorists, he or she assumes they do not exist. |
Another bright spot is the 2004 publication of Understanding Terror Networks by Marc Sageman. Using public sources, Sageman collects biographies of 172 Islamic terrorist operatives affiliated with the global Salafi jihad (the violent revivalist Islamic movement led by al Qaeda). He uses social network analysis specifically on Al Qaeda operatives since 1998. [...]
Despite their many strengths, Krebs’ and Sageman’s works have a few key drawbacks. By dealing with open sources, these authors are limited in acquiring data. With open sources, if the author does not have information on terrorists, he or she assumes they do not exist. |
Continued from previous page. |
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If one cannot find an al Qaeda operative in publicly available sources in Denmark, the researcher could assume there is no al Qaeda network in Denmark. | If one cannot find an al Qaeda operative in the U.S. in publicly available sources, the researcher could assume there is no al Qaeda network. |
This sentence is the almost seamless continuation of the section which Nm began to copy on pages 33 and 34 of his thesis. |
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After 9/11 attacks, the academic world has increased the attention paid to the analysis of terrorist networks because of public interest. Network analysis of terrorist organizations is divided into two groups: data collectors and data modelers:
Data collection is difficult for network analysis because it is hard to create a complete network (as already discussed). It is especially difficult to gain information on terrorist networks. Terrorist organizations do not provide information on the members, and governments rarely allow researchers to use their intelligence data. There has been limited work in the field of complex modeling of terrorist networks. |
[p. 4]
Since the winter of 2001, the academic world has increased the attention paid to the social network analysis of terrorism as a result of public interest and new grant money. [FN 15] Network analysis of terrorist organizations continues to grow and can be divided into two groups: the data collectors and the modelers. [...] Data collection is difficult for any network analysis because it is hard to create a complete network. It is especially difficult to gain information on terrorist networks. Terrorist organizations do not provide information on their members, and the government rarely allows researchers to use their intelligence data. [p. 5] There has been limited work in the field of complex modeling of terrorist networks outside the work of Kathleen Carley and her associates. |
The paragraph from line 26 to 30 can already be found on page 33 Nm/Fragment_033_15 of Nm's thesis. Comparing these two paragraphs, one can see directly how Nm tries to camouflage his copying |
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[A common problem for the modelers is the] issue of data. Any academic work is only as good as the data, no matter the type of advanced methods used. It is, well known fact that modelers often do not have the best data and they do not have access to classified data. Many of the models are created without data or with incomplete data. The implication of this is that the results can be potentially misleading. | A common problem for the modelers is the issue of data. Any academic work is only as good as the data, no matter the type of advanced methods used. Modelers often do not have the best data, as they have not collected individual biographies (like Sageman) and do not have access to classified data. Many of the models are created data-free or without complete data, yet do not fully consider human and data limitations. The implication of this is that the results can be potentially misleading, [...] |
Continued from last page: no reference to the source is given. |
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It would be quite difficult to model the network structure and evolution of Al Qaeda since many of the organizations that claim ties to Al Qaeda are lying and do not actually have those ties. It can be quite difficult differentiating these groups from other, truly loosely affiliated groups. | For example, it would be quite difficult to model the network structure and evolution of al Qaeda since many of the organizations that claim ties to al Qaeda are lying and do not actually have those ties. It can be quite difficult differentiating these groups from other, truly loosely affiliated groups. |
One more paragraph that Nm has taken from Ressler (2006) leaving it unchanged, not marking it as a citation and without referencing the source. |
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Moreover, as described earlier, data collection is difficult for any network analysis because it is hard to create a complete network. It is difficult especially to gain information on terrorist networks. Terrorist organizations do not provide information on their membership structure, and the intelligence agencies rarely allow researchers to use their intelligence data. A number of academic researchers focus primarily on data collection on terrorist
organizations, analyzing the information through descriptive and straight forward methods (for example, Krebs V., 2002, Sageman, M., 2004) as described earlier. |
Data collection is difficult for any network analysis because it is hard to create a complete network. It is especially difficult to gain information on terrorist networks. Terrorist organizations do not provide information on their members, and the government rarely allows researchers to use their intelligence data. A number of academic researchers focus primarily on data collection on terrorist organizations, analyzing the information through description and straightforward modeling. |
Unbelievable: For the third time (see Nm/Fragment_033_15 and Nm/Fragment_040_22) we are confronted with the same six lines from Ressler (2006) with only slight modifications. Still no mention of the source. |
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One promising activity is the development of a major terrorism web portal at the University of Arizona’s Artificial Intelligence Lab. The website makes social network tools and data related to terrorism publicly available (Reid, E., et al., 2004). One example is the Terrorism Knowledge Portal, a database consisting of over 360,000 terrorism news articles and related Web pages coming from various high-quality terrorism websites, major search engines,
and new portals. |
[p. 6]
One promising activity is the development of a major terrorism web portal at the University of Arizona’s Artificial Intelligence Center. This website makes social network tools and data related to terrorism publicly available. [EN 18] One example is the Terrorism [p.7] Knowledge Portal, a database consisting of over 360,000 terrorism news articles and related Web pages coming from various high-quality terrorism Web sites, major search engines, and news portals. [EN 18] Edna Reid, Jialun Quin, Wingyan Chung, Jennifer Xu, Yilu Zhou, Rob Schumaker, Marc Sageman, and Hsinchun Chen, “Terrorism Knowledge Discovery Project: A Knowledge Discovery Approach to Address the Threats of Terrorism,” (Working paper, 2004). |
Nothing marked as a citation, no source named. |
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Investigative data mining is just one tool that can be used to understand terrorism, and one piece of the puzzle. Domain experts are needed to provide a context for the research. Furthermore, the basic assumption of investigative data mining regarding terrorism may not be completely valid. Despite their non-hierarchical approach, terrorist organizations are not completely organized in a network structure (Ressler, S., 2006). There are still central headquarters and training camps for most terrorist organizations. Investigative data mining must attempt to address the underlying root cause of terrorism. It is helpful to understand how a network evolves and how to destabilize a network. It is more helpful, however, to understand how a network recruits human bombs and [why people wish to join terrorist networks.] | social network analysis is just one tool that can be used to understand terrorism, and is just one piece of the puzzle. Subject matter experts are needed to provide a context for the research. Furthermore, the basic assumption of network analysis regarding terrorism may not be completely valid. Despite their nonhierarchical approach, terrorist organizations are not completely organized in a network structure. There are still central headquarters and training facilities for most terrorist organizations. Also, social network analysis must attempt to address the underlying root cause of terrorism. It is helpful to understand how a network evolves and how to destabilize a network. It is more helpful, however, to understand how networks recruit participants and why people wish to join terrorist networks. |
Even at the end, when Nm tries to summarize his own results - we are talking about the section "9.2 DISSERTATION CONTRIBUTIONS" - there is a whole section from another work without it being marked as a citation. This paragraph originally belonged to the final - discussion - section of Ressler (2006). The source Ressler (2006) is given, but no citation is marked (and the copied text continues after the reference to Ressler (2006)). |
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[It is more helpful, however, to understand how a network recruits human bombs and] why people wish to join terrorist networks.
It is believed to see an expansion of the research areas in which investigative data mining is being used with regard to terrorism. Only a limited amount of work has been completed and there is much room for this technology to yield insights into terrorism. |
It is more helpful, however, to understand how networks recruit participants and why people wish to join terrorist networks.
I would like to see an expansion of the research areas in which network analysis is being used with regard to terrorism. Only a limited amount of work has been completed, and there is much room for this tool to yield great insights into terrorism. |
Even final words are not Nm's own. |
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Investigative data mining can also be used to understand the psychological effects of terrorism. One of the main effects of terrorism is fear, which is spread through network structures such as media, the Internet, and personal relationships. For example, the number of ties an individual has to victims of terrorism may impact the individual’s perception of the risk of terrorism.
It is believed to see further research on network structure evolution. It would be interesting to compare structures of multiple terrorist [networks to see how they evolve over time.] |
[p. 7]
Network analysis can also be used to understand the psychological effect of terrorism. One of the main effects of terrorism is fear, which is spread through network [p.8] structures such as media, the Internet, and personal relationships. For example, the number of ties an individual has to victims of terrorism may impact the individual’s perception of the risk of terrorism. Finally, I would like to see further research on network structure evolution. It would be interesting to compare the structure of multiple terrorist networks to see how they evolve over time. |
On the final stretch of Nm's thesis one can find a large portion of somebody else's final thoughts on the subject. |
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The network structure may impact the ability of an organization to endure over the years and to complete attacks. It is important for intelligence agencies to understand how to fragment a network; they could potentially exploit the destabilizing techniques discussed in this research work including small world topology by eliminating weak ties in order to isolate the network and diminish its reach and power. The removal of individuals in key network regions may be even more important than attacking the traditional leaders of a group. | The network structure may impact the ability of an organization to endure over the years and complete attacks. It is important for intelligence analysts to understand how to break up a network; they could potentially exploit the small world topology by eliminating weak ties in order to isolate the network and diminish its reach and power. The removal of individuals in key network locations may be even more important than attacking the traditional leaders of
a group. |
continued from previous page |
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